Gamblers have always had rituals: a favourite seat, a lucky number, a charm in a pocket. Most of them are harmless and part of the fun. A few, however, lead to decisions that cost real money. This article describes some widely known superstitions, explains the thinking errors that keep them alive, and checks each against the maths of independent games such as roulette and RNG slots.
Widely known gambling superstitions
- Lucky and unlucky numbers. In Chinese culture, 8 is considered lucky because its pronunciation resembles the word for prosperity, while 4 is avoided because it sounds like the word for death. In Western tradition, 7 is often seen as lucky and 13 as unlucky.
- Red as a lucky colour. Red is associated with good fortune in Chinese tradition, and some players wear red or prefer red bets for that reason.
- Lucky charms. Coins, clovers, rabbits' feet, a particular piece of clothing — objects carried “for luck”.
- “Hot” and “cold” machines. The idea that a slot that has just paid is hot and will keep paying, or that one that has not paid for a long time is about to.
- Changing seats or tables. Moving after a run of losses to “change the luck”, or refusing to leave a seat during a good run.
Rituals like these are cultural and personal. The question is only whether they affect outcomes — and in games of independent chance, they do not.
Why superstitions feel true
The illusion of control
In 1975 the psychologist Ellen Langer described the illusion of control: people tend to behave as if they can influence outcomes that are purely random, especially when the situation includes elements of skill-like activity — choosing, touching, timing. Picking your own number, throwing the dice yourself or pressing the spin button at “the right moment” feel like influence, but the result is the same as if someone else did it.
The gambler's fallacy
The gambler's fallacy is the belief that after a run of one outcome, the opposite outcome becomes more likely — that red is “due” after many blacks. The best-known illustration is the run of blacks at the Monte Carlo Casino in 1913, widely reported as 26 in a row, during which players are said to have lost heavily betting on red. The wheel has no memory; each spin starts from scratch.
The hot-hand belief
The mirror image is the belief that a streak will continue: a machine or player is “hot”. Whatever the debate about streaks in sports, where skill and confidence are involved, in a roulette wheel or a certified RNG slot there is no mechanism that could make one result more likely because of the previous ones.
Memory and confirmation bias
We remember the night the lucky shirt worked and forget the many nights it did not. Wins are vivid and get retold; ordinary losses blur together. Over time, this selective memory makes a ritual look reliable. The same filter is behind the big-win stories discussed in our article on why big-win stories mislead.
What the maths says: independence
In European roulette, the wheel has 37 pockets: 18 red, 18 black and one green zero. On every spin, any single number has a probability of 1/37 (about 2.70%), and red has a probability of 18/37 (about 48.6%). These figures are the same on the first spin of the evening and on the hundredth, whatever came before.
Streaks are rarer than single outcomes, but rare is not impossible. The probability of ten reds in a row is (18/37)10 ≈ 0.074%, roughly 1 in 1,350. That sounds remarkable — but it is the probability of the whole run, calculated before it starts. Once nine reds have already appeared, the chance that the tenth spin is red is still 18/37. The past spins are fixed history; they do not change the wheel.
The same applies to RNG slots: each spin is generated independently, so a machine is neither “hot” after a win nor “due” after a dry spell. Terms such as RTP and volatility are explained in the glossary.
| Belief | Why it feels true | What the maths says |
|---|---|---|
| Red is due after a run of blacks | Long runs look “unbalanced” | Red stays 18/37 on every spin |
| This machine is hot, it just paid | Recent wins are vivid | Each RNG spin is independent of the last |
| This slot has not paid for ages, it must soon | Feels like it is “building up” | No memory; the odds per spin do not change |
| My lucky number comes up more often | Hits are remembered, misses forgotten | Every number is 1/37 in European roulette |
| Changing tables changes my luck | A new start feels different | Same game rules, same house edge |
| Pressing spin at the right moment helps | Action feels like control | The RNG result does not depend on timing skill |
The belief that costs the most: “it's due”
A lucky charm costs nothing. The belief that a win is “due” is different, because it tends to come with bigger bets after losses — chasing. A labelled example shows how quickly this escalates.
Assumptions: European roulette, betting on red, starting at €5 and doubling the stake after every loss in the belief that red must come soon. After six losses in a row the stakes have been €5, €10, €20, €40, €80 and €160 — a total of €315 lost — and the seventh bet would be €320. Six losses in a row on red (black or zero each time) has a probability of (19/37)6 ≈ 1.8%, about 1 in 55. That is not rare for anyone who plays regularly. And when red finally does come, the whole sequence wins back only the original €5.
Remember: a run of losses does not make a win more likely. If you notice yourself raising stakes because a result “has to” come, that is the moment to stop, not to bet more. No betting progression changes the house edge.
Keeping rituals harmless
- Enjoy the ritual, but let it decide only things that do not matter — which shirt, not how much to bet.
- Decide your budget and stake size before playing and do not change them because of a streak.
- Treat “hot” and “cold” as descriptions of the past, never as predictions.
- Keep a simple record of sessions — money in, money out — to correct selective memory.
For broader budget and session advice, see the tips page.
18+ — play for entertainment only. Gambling costs money; set a budget you can afford to lose and stop when it is spent. If it stops being fun, free and confidential help is available: GamCare (UK) on 0808 8020 133 or gamcare.org.uk, and Gambling Therapy for free online support from anywhere.
Frequently asked questions
Is the gambler's fallacy real?
The fallacy is real as a thinking error, not as a property of games. After any run of results, the next roulette spin still has the same probabilities: 18/37 for red in European roulette.
Can a slot machine be hot or cold?
Not in a meaningful sense. Each spin of a certified RNG slot is independent, so recent wins or losses do not change the odds of the next spin.
How likely are ten reds in a row in European roulette?
About 0.074%, or roughly 1 in 1,350, calculated before the run starts. Once nine reds have appeared, the tenth spin is still red with probability 18/37.
Are lucky charms harmful?
A charm itself costs nothing. Problems start when a belief changes betting decisions, especially raising stakes after losses because a win seems due.